Reasonable fans can agree. The top franchises since 1966 are teams like the Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers, and 49ers. The debate gets interesting in the next tiers.
A data nerd, I thought I would quantify it with five criteria:
- Regular season winning percent – 20%
- Playoff appearances – 5%
- Playoff winning percent – 10%
- Super bowl appearances / conference championships – 20%
- Super bowl championships – 45%
I adjusted the scores based on the number of eligible years. Most teams have existed for 58 seasons in the Super Bowl era (not including 2024). However, the Ravens (27), Seahawks and Buccaneers (47), Panthers and Jaguars (28), and Texans (21) have played fewer seasons. So I had to weight the data. While the Bucs have 2 super bowl championships, it would be unfair to compare them to the Ravens (who also have 2) as the Bucs have had more opportunities.
The data is up to the 2023 season. I will update my rankings after the 2024 super bowl.
Overall Rankings
With a high weight placed on super bowls, it’s no surprise the Patriots come out as the top franchise in the super bowl era. The Steelers are consistently good year after year. They have had four coaches in the super bowl era. The Cowboys and 49ers rankings should also not be surprising.
Stories
- Some might be surprised by the Ravens strong showing as the 5th best franchise. But they’ve had a strong run for 27 years.
- This is a somewhat obscure fact. The Vikings have the 4th best regular season winning percentage in the super bowl era (the last 58 years). Yes, you read that right. Only the Cowboys, Steelers, and Ravens have performed better in the regular season over the last 58 years. The Vikings rank 17th as a francishe due to their lack of postseason success.
- The Vikings and the Bills are the highest ranked franchises to not win a super bowl, coming in a 17 and 18 in the overall rankings. While they are both 0-4 in the super bowl, the Vikings have a much stronger and consistent regular season record of success.
- The Giants are the opposite of the Vikings. The Giants rank 21st in regular season winning percentage. In fact, it’s below .500. However, the Giants have had remarkable postseason success. This capapults them to 9th in the rankings.
Tiers
Tier 1: Elite Franchises: 30-26 score.
The Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys and 49ers emerge as the elite franchises. These teams have a consistent record of regular season success and postseason achievements.
The 49ers score is closer to tier 2 than tier 1. I made a judgment call for tier 1 because the 49ers have been in so many NFC championship games. My data does not capture that (although it does cover playoff winning percentage).
Tier 2: Great Franchises: 26-23 score.
The Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, and Broncos are in tier 2. These teams might have some off years, but they are contenders pretty much every year. The Broncos are tied with the Steelers and Cowboys for the 2nd most super bowl appearances (8).
The Chiefs have catapulted to a tier 2 franchise in the Mahomes era. If they get more super bowl appearances and wins under Mahomes, they could catapult to tier 1.
Tier 3: Great Franchises: 22-19 score.
Eight teams make teir 3: the Giants, Raiders, Commanders, Rams, Dolphins, Colts, Eagles, Seahawks, and Vikings. These are usually solid teams who occasionally make the playoffs. Except for the Giants, they all have positive regular season winning percentages. They all have a super bowl win, except for the Vikings.
Tier 4: Middle of the Pack: 18-17 score.
The Bills, Bucs, Panthers and Bears fall in the middle of the pack. The only reason the Bucs fall in this category and not a lower one is their two super bowl wins. Their history is one of balaned win-loss records or years of mediocrity with periodic successful spikes (like the Bills latest run).
Tier 5: Below Average: 16-15 score.
The Saints, Chargers, Jets, Bengals, and Titans/Oilers are in tier 5. They have generally struggled or been consistently mediocre, despite the Bengals three super bowl appearances.
The Chargers and Titans/Oilers kind of stand out in this group. I always feel like these teams can be dangerous and competititve at any moment. The Bengals as of the last few years as well.
Tier 6: Poor: 14 score
The Jaguars, Falcons, and Texans. I really can’t say more.
Tier 7: Bottom Tier: 13 and below score.
These three teams – the Browns, Lions and Cardinals – are known for their lack of success. I’m not telling the fans something they don’t already know.
However, I have always found these teams likeable and root for them. Their fans are incredible and continue to support them. Maybe this will be the year Lions break out?
Divisions
Not surprisingly, the NFC east is the best, led by the Cowboys, Commanders and Giants. The Eagles have also been successful. They are the 15th highest ranked franchise, but lowest in the NFC east.
The AFC west is led by the Chiefs and Broncos with 14 super bowl appearances between them and the 9th and 10th best regular season winning records overall. The Raiders were successful for a long time, particularly in the 60s through the 80s.
The AFC west is led by the Patriots and Dolphins, who were always competitive in the Don Shula era.
The Steelers and Ravens clearly stand out in the AFC north, as do the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks in the NFC west. I was a little surprised by the low NFC north rankings, but the Lions and Bears bring down the average. At 19th overall, the Bucs are the highest ranked team in the NFC south (lower than the lowest NFC east team, the Eagles). The AFC south is led by the Colts, the only divisional team to win a superbowl.
- NFC east – 22.6
- AFC west – 21.1
- AFC east – 20.6
- AFC north – 20.4
- NFC west – 19.8
- NFC north – 18.7
- NFC south – 16.4
- AFC south – 16.1
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